[CRT] Weekly projection for the EURUSD, week of December 1

We start the first week of December after a Friday that was calm for some, but very intense for others due to the CME data center outage. Added to the usual sideways price movement during the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S., we begin the week with a doubtful direction in our main asset and its two closest references: GBPUSD and DXY.

With November closed, it is time to first analyze the close of the monthly candle:

In the monthly chart we observe that the bearish range remains active, although the November close has generated a new countertrend monthly range. This does not necessarily imply it will be completed, but as long as bearish confirmations do not appear on the weekly chart, the bias for this week momentarily points upwards.

In GBPUSD the bearish targets are not as defined as in EURUSD, although the monthly direction is clear:

Regarding the DXY, it has just completed a bullish range on the monthly chart and the November close has activated a bearish range, providing another signal that reinforces the possible bullish direction for European assets:

EURUSD Weekly: focus on intraday trading

Going down to the weekly timeframe for EURUSD —focusing on what really affects our intraday trading— we see that last week the price marked the last low on Friday afternoon. This allows us to consider the low of the week of November 17 as cleared and detect a turtle soup pattern. From our CRT approach, the main confirmed target (with a closed candle) is the high of that same week:

The only scenario that could change the perspective would be a strong price reaction upon surpassing the high of the week of November 24. If that happens, we will interpret that the downtrend continues.

If that reaction does not occur, we maintain a bullish bias with a target at the high of the week of the 17th, specifically the high of Monday the 17th:

It should be remembered that, besides the start of the week, we are at the start of the month, so usually the monthly wick forms first against the main direction. It is advisable to start with moderate risk until the price defines its path.

As always, we speculate that the monthly direction will become clear on Friday, December 5 with the macroeconomic data, especially the NFP.

Happy week to everyone and many profits.